Economy continues slide in second quarter
By Kathrina Alvarez and Virgil B. Lopez
Thursday, September 1, 2011
PHILIPPINE economic growth slackened during the second quarter this year, expanding by less than half its rate compared to the same period last year.
With the absence of election spending and the slow recovery of its major trading partners, the economy grew slowly by 3.4 percent in the second quarter of 2011, the government said Wednesday.
The expansion is less than half the 8.9-percent expansion registered in April to June last year.
However, the government remains optimistic that it would hit the ambitious seven to eight percent growth target this year.
Given the sobering data, the economy is hard-pressed to grow by 9.9 percent in the third quarter and 11.8 percent in the fourth quarter to hit the yearend goal.
In a press briefing, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano Paderanga Jr. said the modest growth was driven by the turnaround of the agriculture sector (7.1 percent), particularly sugarcane, palay, and corn.
Growth was also supported by the modest expansion of the services sector, primarily financial intermediation, real estate, renting and business activities, and other services subsectors.
“We will be discussing the review of economic targets in the DBCC (Development Budget Coordination Committee), something that we regularly do after the first half results,” Paderanga said.
The latest economic report shattered the government’s official projection of 4.5-5.5 percent and some international organizations’ average outlook of five percent.
The economy grew at a revised 4.6 percent in the first quarter, bringing the first half economic expansion at only four percent.
On the expenditure side of the economy, growth was spurred by household and government consumption, according to planning chief.
But this was constrained by surges in world oil prices, natural disasters in Japan, the slow recovery of the United States and European economies, the political turmoil in the Middle East, and bad weather conditions, which negatively affected the fishing subsector.
Asked for comment, Alliance of Concerned Teachers (ACT) party-list Representative Antonio Tinio said the economic data only showed that the administration has not laid out long-term solutions towards equitable growth.
“The Aquino administration has not addressed the genuine development of domestic industry and agriculture, including land reform,” he said.
Aurora Representative Juan Edgardo “Sonny” Angara, for his part, said the government should be looking at other economic indices which measure poverty and income inequality reduction.
For its part, Malacañang is elated over the latest economic results.
“Despite the gains we have made over the past year, we remain aware of the necessary steps we must take to achieve even more growth. We have been accelerating spending to provide added stimulus to the economy,” presidential spokesman Edwin Lacierda said in a statement.
“July 2011, which will be included in the 3rd Quarter GDP Growth
assessment, saw us spend P133.45 million—the highest monthly national government spending figure so far this year,” he added.
Lacierda said the Aquino administration is also working to bring in more foreign direct investments as shown by President Benigno Aquino III’s five-day state visit to the China from August 30 to September 3.
Better second half expansion expected
Meantime, Paderanga saw better prospects for the second half due to improved business confidence, better paddy production, and increased public spending.
Specifically, public construction and government services are likely to pick-up due to the accelerated spending plan of government implementing agencies and the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) for the rest of the year.
Paderanga said that government may spend as high as P240.3 billion from September to December, which includes cash grants for Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program, financial assistance to local government units, health services, and housing projects, among others.
“The CCT (conditional cash transfer) program is important because it will add to popular purchasing power to stimulate domestic demand,” Akbayan party-list Representative Walden Bello said.
Paderanga said the government will also implement tangible measures to boost domestic demand, and take advantage of the benefits of closer integration of fast-growing Southeast Asian economies.
These measures may include pursuing and accelerating infrastructure projects, diversifying domestic and external trade, sustaining domestic consumption, securing investments, and safeguarding price stability and the functioning of financial systems.
Investments are also expected to continue to register positive increases given the “bright outlook” in the expansion plans of firms across the industry subsectors.
The planning chief, however, was unsure if the central bank will hold any rate hike following the unexpected slowdown.
“Monetary policies are under the Monetary Board (of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). However, the BSP is also a resource person in the DBCC. Their inputs will also be taken into account,” Paderanga said.
Earlier, the BSP implemented two rate hikes to tame inflation, putting the overnight borrowing rate at a two-year high of 4.50 percent and the overnight lending rate at 6.50 percent.
Keeping interest rates low is intended to stimulate investments due to lower costs of borrowing money to fund business expansion and other projects.
A strong economic performance in the last two quarters of 2011, however, is not without risks, the government said.
Besides external shocks, the Philippines’ immediate concerns include delays in public spending, weak industry output, and timely recovery from natural calamities. (With Jill Beltran/Sunnex)
Source: http://www.sunstar.com.ph/manila/local-news/2011/09/01/economy-continues-slide-second-quarter-176561
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