ADB warns of wage-price spirals in Asia
THE rising inflation remains a “major risk” in Asia, including the Philippines and could trigger a potentially damaging wage-price spiral, , the Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned on Thursday.
In its July edition of Asian Economic Monitor (AEM), the Manila-based lender said inflation rate in the Philippines is projected to average at 5.8 percent in the next 12 months and 5.9 percent in the next 24 months.
In the next 36 months, ADB said inflation in the country is likely to average at 5.6 percent.
“Inflation continued to rise across much of the region, driven by higher commodity prices and strong economic recovery,” ADB said.
The lender said the risk of rising inflation could lead to wage-price spirals that could derail the region’s growth.
A wage-price spiral is when rising prices leads to workers demanding higher wages, which drives up production costs and puts further upward pressure on prices.
“The risk is there but policymakers know that this risk is right in front of their eyes” and are taking steps to address inflation,” Iwan Azis, head of ADB’s Office of Regional Economic Integration said.
Inflation around the region was hovering at 3 percent to 6 percent but in some places, such as Vietnam, it had hit 20 percent by the end of June, the lender said.
“Other risks to the outlook include a more tepid than expected recovery in Japan and unresolved debt problems in the US and eurozone; increasing financial market volatility; and destabilizing capital flows,” the ADB said
The lender also said that the Philippine economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to moderate to 5 percent this year as authorities tighten fiscal and monetary conditions.
GDP refers to the total value of final goods and services produced in a country.
For next year, the ADB said growth in the Philippines is expected to show a slight pickup in growth to 5.3 percent.
The ADB report forecasts aggregate GDP growth for emerging East Asia economies of 7.9 percent in 2011 and 7.7 percent in 2012. In 2010 aggregate growth reached 9.3 percent.
“Growth is easing in most of emerging East Asia as authorities wind down fiscal stimulus measures and tighten monetary policies to counter rising inflation,” Iwan Azis, head of ADB’s Office of Regional Economic Integration that prepared the report said.
“This is actually a good thing so stronger economies like the People’s Republic of China (PRC) don’t overheat,” he added.
With report from AFP
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